{"F": {"ts_code": "688267.SH", "name": "中触媒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220216", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.87, "pe_ttm": 27.1587, "pb": 1.4982, "dv_ttm": 2.0107, "total_mv": 430493.1981, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.1, 45.2, 39.6, 32.8, 39.0, 44.1], "rev_series": [4.1, 5.6, 6.8, 5.5, 6.7, 8.5], "np_series": [0.9, 1.3, 1.5, 0.8, 1.5, 2.0], "roe_series": [13.5, 17.2, 8.7, 2.9, 5.4, 7.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.4, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 2.2, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 39.6, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -4.4, "npm_median": 22.3, "roe_median": 7.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.9, "fix_assets": 10.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.5, "capex_dep": 1.53, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 7.0, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 42.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.5, "np_cagr3": 10.5, "rev_yoy": -0.4, "np_yoy": -36.5, "np_vol": 45.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 13.3, "fwd_pe2": 10.9, "fwd_g1": 105.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 0.63, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["特种分子筛及催化剂系列", 86.0], ["非分子筛催化剂系列", 10.0], ["其他业务", 1.0], ["技术收入", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.5, "ret_prev2_year": 24.7, "ret_ytd": -12.3, "ret_pivot": 57.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.7, "ret_60": -13.2, "ret_120": -20.2, "ret_250": -17.4, "mdd_250": -40.6, "vol_250": 38.2, "pos_52w": 70.4}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 55, "hard": 53, "bondness": 39}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 10 亿,占总资产 33%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 39.6%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 2.2%,股息率 2.0%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 82%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 33%)和定价权(毛利率 39.6% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.2%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.6%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 1.53 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 27.2 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -13% / -20%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "中触媒:PE 比行业中位低 8.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点。"]}}