{"F": {"ts_code": "688266.SH", "name": "泽璟制药", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "化学制剂", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200123", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 117.99, "pe_ttm": 56.8007, "pb": 18.1535, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 3123292.0518, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [99.9, 96.7, 91.3, 92.4, 93.1, 90.4], "rev_series": [0.3, 1.9, 3.0, 3.9, 5.3, 8.1], "np_series": [-3.2, -4.5, -4.6, -2.8, -1.4, -1.6], "roe_series": [-39.4, -32.1, -46.8, -23.3, -9.5, -14.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.4, "np_ttm": 5.5, "ocf_ttm": 8.0, "fcf_ttm": 6.5, "fcf_yield": 2.1, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 92.4, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -8.6, "npm_median": -76.4, "roe_median": -23.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.4, "fix_assets": 5.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 18.15, "capex_dep": 6.87, "interest_debt": 8.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 51.2, "debt_mv": 2.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 38.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 220.9, "np_yoy": 979.1, "np_vol": 34.5, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 58.7, "fwd_pe2": 82.2, "fwd_g1": -3.0, "fwd_g2": -29.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["授权许可", 35.0], ["技术授权许可", 35.0], ["药品", 30.0], ["医药中间体及原辅料", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 48.8, "ret_prev2_year": 17.7, "ret_ytd": 27.3, "ret_pivot": 110.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.0, "ret_60": 29.0, "ret_120": 49.4, "ret_250": 6.1, "mdd_250": -37.3, "vol_250": 62.9, "pos_52w": 80.0}, "S": {"duration": 76, "pricing": 84, "hard": 23, "bondness": 4}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 5.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 57 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 51%,有息负债 8 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 92.4%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.1%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 92.4%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 6.87 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 56.8 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 6%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 63%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 29% / 49%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "泽璟制药:PE 比行业中位高 19.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 39.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.4个百分点。"]}}