{"F": {"ts_code": "688265.SH", "name": "南模生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗服务", "sw3": "医疗研发外包", "ind": "医疗服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20211228", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 38.24, "pe_ttm": 133.4178, "pb": 1.7357, "dv_ttm": 0.324, "total_mv": 298132.424, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [60.3, 60.9, 41.7, 42.4, 45.6, 51.7], "rev_series": [2.0, 2.8, 3.0, 3.7, 3.8, 4.2], "np_series": [0.4, 0.6, -0.1, -0.2, 0.1, 0.3], "roe_series": [22.8, 6.0, -0.3, -1.2, 0.4, 1.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.6, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 45.6, "gm_std": 7.1, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -18.6, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 0.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.2, "fix_assets": 3.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.74, "capex_dep": 2.52, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 13.9, "debt_mv": 1.8, "payout": 29.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 11.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 18.7, "np_yoy": -50.0, "np_vol": 224.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["标准化模型", 20.0], ["模型技术服务", 12.0], ["药效评价及表型分析", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 77.8, "ret_prev2_year": -39.8, "ret_ytd": -6.5, "ret_pivot": 87.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.9, "ret_60": 21.6, "ret_120": -12.0, "ret_250": -36.2, "mdd_250": -50.0, "vol_250": 59.9, "pos_52w": 61.7}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 56, "hard": 31, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 133 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 14%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 45.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 45.6%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -18.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 2.52 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 133.4 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / 22% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗服务」52 家中位:PE 73.1 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 41.3% / 固定资产占比 19% / 分红率 34%。", "南模生物:PE 比行业中位高 60.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点。"]}}