{"F": {"ts_code": "688261.SH", "name": "东微半导", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "分立器件", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220210", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 66.47, "pe_ttm": 65.254, "pb": 2.696, "dv_ttm": 0.1134, "total_mv": 815223.3091, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.9, 28.7, 34.0, 22.7, 14.3, 16.2], "rev_series": [3.1, 7.8, 11.2, 9.7, 10.0, 12.5], "np_series": [0.3, 1.5, 2.8, 1.4, 0.4, 0.5], "roe_series": [9.5, 29.8, 16.7, 4.9, 1.4, 1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.7, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_ttm": -3.2, "fcf_yield": -3.9, "ocf_yield": -1.7, "gm_median": 22.7, "gm_std": 7.4, "gm_stab": 0.67, "gm_chg_2022": 16.1, "npm_median": 14.4, "roe_median": 4.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.9, "fix_assets": 1.6, "goodwill_ratio": 9.9, "pb_calc": 2.7, "capex_dep": 9.12, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 8.5, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 19.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.9, "np_cagr3": -45.4, "rev_yoy": 19.6, "np_yoy": 285.4, "np_vol": 182.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 57.2, "fwd_pe2": 35.3, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 62.0, "peg": 0.92, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["功率半导体产品", 88.0], ["数模混合控制芯片", 6.0], ["晶圆", 6.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 95.7, "ret_prev2_year": -34.6, "ret_ytd": -18.9, "ret_pivot": 134.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.4, "ret_60": -17.2, "ret_120": -22.1, "ret_250": -8.6, "mdd_250": -42.9, "vol_250": 81.2, "pos_52w": 63.4}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 46, "hard": 8, "bondness": 29}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 65.3 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 5%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(4 篇研报)前瞻 PE 57.2 倍,次年 35.3 倍,PEG 0.92。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.9%(经营现金流/市值 -1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.7%,稳定度 67%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 16.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 9.12 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 65.3 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 81%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -17% / -22%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "东微半导:PE 比行业中位低 16.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.5个百分点。"]}}