{"F": {"ts_code": "688260.SH", "name": "昀冢科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210406", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 89.57, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 77.0384, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1074840.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.8, 27.4, 22.7, 18.7, 14.0, 3.1], "rev_series": [5.5, 5.2, 4.6, 5.2, 5.6, 5.6], "np_series": [0.6, 0.2, -0.7, -1.3, -1.2, -1.9], "roe_series": [25.3, 4.0, -14.1, -32.1, -44.1, -109.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.0, "np_ttm": -1.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 18.7, "gm_std": 8.3, "gm_stab": 0.55, "gm_chg_2022": -8.1, "npm_median": -23.1, "roe_median": -32.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 61.2, "fix_assets": 11.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 77.04, "capex_dep": 1.56, "interest_debt": 8.5, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 89.2, "debt_mv": 7.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 6.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 53.7, "np_yoy": 8.7, "np_vol": 197.1, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 190.6, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["销售商品收入", 50.0], ["销售商品", 50.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 106.5, "ret_prev2_year": -54.0, "ret_ytd": 211.0, "ret_pivot": 610.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.7, "ret_60": -5.9, "ret_120": 202.1, "ret_250": 198.1, "mdd_250": -54.8, "vol_250": 110.5, "pos_52w": 62.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 32, "hard": 98, "bondness": 16}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 61%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.1 个百分点;资产负债率 89%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 61%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.7%,稳定度 55%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.7%,稳定度 55%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 61%,资本开支/折旧 1.56 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 198%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 110%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -16% / -6% / 202%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "昀冢科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 36.4个百分点。"]}}