{"F": {"ts_code": "688258.SH", "name": "卓易信息", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20191209", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 94.45, "pe_ttm": 72.0282, "pb": 11.5297, "dv_ttm": 0.2079, "total_mv": 1144188.079, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [58.7, 52.8, 51.1, 46.2, 52.2, 55.9], "rev_series": [2.0, 2.4, 2.8, 3.2, 3.2, 3.4], "np_series": [0.6, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.3, 0.8], "roe_series": [6.6, 4.7, 5.5, 5.6, 3.5, 9.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.4, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 52.2, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -7.6, "npm_median": 17.8, "roe_median": 5.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.0, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 6.1, "pb_calc": 11.53, "capex_dep": 0.37, "interest_debt": 3.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 35.9, "debt_mv": 3.2, "payout": 37.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.9, "np_cagr3": 16.1, "rev_yoy": 2.0, "np_yoy": 291.7, "np_vol": 65.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 61.8, "fwd_pe2": 38.6, "fwd_g1": 16.0, "fwd_g2": 60.0, "peg": 1.03, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["AIIDE业务", 22.0], ["AI IDE业务", 22.0], ["云计算设备核心固件业务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 122.9, "ret_prev2_year": -1.8, "ret_ytd": 23.5, "ret_pivot": 318.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -17.2, "ret_60": -21.1, "ret_120": -20.0, "ret_250": 27.3, "mdd_250": -46.8, "vol_250": 85.5, "pos_52w": 57.6}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 63, "hard": 13, "bondness": 35}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["成长兑现"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 72.0 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 8%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(8 篇研报)前瞻 PE 61.8 倍,次年 38.6 倍,PEG 1.03。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 52.2%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 52.2%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 0.37 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 72.0 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 27%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 86%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -17% / -21% / -20%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "卓易信息:PE 比行业中位低 12.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 24.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点。"]}}