{"F": {"ts_code": "688256.SH", "name": "寒武纪", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "数字芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200720", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1072.0, "pe_ttm": 202.3168, "pb": 49.7315, "dv_ttm": 0.0938, "total_mv": 67413148.8, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [65.4, 62.4, 65.8, 69.2, 56.7, 55.2], "rev_series": [4.6, 7.2, 7.3, 7.1, 11.7, 65.0], "np_series": [-4.3, -8.2, -12.6, -8.5, -4.5, 20.6], "roe_series": [-8.1, -13.4, -23.4, -16.2, -8.2, 23.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 96.1, "np_ttm": 33.3, "ocf_ttm": -11.0, "fcf_ttm": -18.5, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": -0.2, "gm_median": 62.4, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 0.4, "npm_median": -115.1, "roe_median": -13.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.0, "fix_assets": 7.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 49.73, "capex_dep": 5.28, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 25.5, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 30.4, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 107.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 108.1, "np_yoy": 122.6, "np_vol": 234.0, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 17, "fwd_pe": 108.2, "fwd_pe2": 52.9, "fwd_g1": 87.0, "fwd_g2": 105.0, "peg": 1.03, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["云端产品线", 100.0], ["边缘产品线", 0.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 106.3, "ret_prev2_year": 391.9, "ret_ytd": 18.0, "ret_pivot": 656.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.7, "ret_60": -12.1, "ret_120": 45.9, "ret_250": 15.5, "mdd_250": -39.3, "vol_250": 69.8, "pos_52w": 67.2}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 71, "hard": 6, "bondness": 11}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 33.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 202 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 26%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 62.4%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 -0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 62.4%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 5.28 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 202.3 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 16%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 70%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -12% / 46%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "寒武纪:PE 比行业中位高 120.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 27.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.4个百分点。"]}}