{"F": {"ts_code": "688255.SH", "name": "凯尔达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "机器人", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20211025", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.64, "pe_ttm": 54.0886, "pb": 2.6351, "dv_ttm": 0.5668, "total_mv": 281678.2196, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.1, 21.4, 19.1, 18.7, 20.4, 17.4], "rev_series": [5.9, 5.4, 3.9, 4.8, 5.6, 6.5], "np_series": [0.7, 0.6, 0.4, 0.2, 0.3, 0.3], "roe_series": [39.5, 8.9, 3.3, 2.3, 3.0, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.6, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 2.9, "gm_median": 19.1, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -3.0, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 3.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.4, "fix_assets": 1.8, "goodwill_ratio": 1.4, "pb_calc": 2.64, "capex_dep": 2.62, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 18.1, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 65.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 18.2, "np_cagr3": -11.0, "rev_yoy": 34.7, "np_yoy": 1095.3, "np_vol": 22.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["工业机器人", 31.0], ["工业焊接设备业务", 10.0], ["工业焊接设备", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 38.9, "ret_prev2_year": 10.1, "ret_ytd": -29.7, "ret_pivot": 59.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.7, "ret_60": -14.3, "ret_120": -13.0, "ret_250": -32.0, "mdd_250": -46.9, "vol_250": 47.5, "pos_52w": 62.3}, "S": {"duration": 74, "pricing": 47, "hard": 21, "bondness": 31}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 54.1 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 19.1%、固定资产占比 13%、资产负债率 18%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.1%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 2.62 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 54.1 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -14% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "凯尔达:PE 比行业中位低 23.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 14.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点。"]}}