{"F": {"ts_code": "688251.SH", "name": "井松智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220606", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.07, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.4859, "dv_ttm": 0.2491, "total_mv": 201909.2175, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.9, 29.0, 26.4, 23.8, 23.8, 17.9], "rev_series": [4.0, 5.4, 5.8, 6.6, 8.4, 10.4], "np_series": [0.5, 0.7, 0.7, 0.4, 0.4, 0.3], "roe_series": [39.7, 34.3, 14.1, 5.4, 5.2, 3.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.0, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 6.4, "gm_median": 23.8, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -4.6, "npm_median": 6.4, "roe_median": 5.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.9, "fix_assets": 2.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.49, "capex_dep": 5.22, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 52.7, "debt_mv": 3.9, "payout": 31.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 21.0, "np_cagr3": -23.6, "rev_yoy": -38.5, "np_yoy": -9704.4, "np_vol": 23.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 47.8, "fwd_pe2": 33.5, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 43.0, "peg": 1.11, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["智能物流系统", 31.0], ["智能物流设备", 16.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 114.2, "ret_prev2_year": -19.1, "ret_ytd": -31.6, "ret_pivot": 75.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.6, "ret_60": -14.7, "ret_120": -40.0, "ret_250": -26.3, "mdd_250": -52.4, "vol_250": 48.6, "pos_52w": 52.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 19, "bondness": 15}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 53%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 6.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 6.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 5.22 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -15% / -40%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "井松智能:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点。"]}}