{"F": {"ts_code": "688249.SH", "name": "晶合集成", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "集成电路制造", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230505", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 35.07, "pe_ttm": 126.924, "pb": 3.365, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 7836902.1087, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-8.6, 45.1, 46.2, 21.6, 25.5, 25.5], "rev_series": [15.1, 54.3, 100.5, 72.4, 92.5, 108.9], "np_series": [-12.6, 17.3, 30.5, 2.1, 5.3, 7.0], "roe_series": [-22.9, 21.1, 27.3, 1.2, 2.5, 3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 116.4, "np_ttm": 6.2, "ocf_ttm": 49.4, "fcf_ttm": -45.9, "fcf_yield": -5.9, "ocf_yield": 6.3, "gm_median": 25.5, "gm_std": 10.6, "gm_stab": 0.58, "gm_chg_2022": 54.7, "npm_median": 5.2, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 75.3, "fix_assets": 442.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.36, "capex_dep": 2.37, "interest_debt": 239.1, "debt_ebitda": 4.8, "debt_ratio": 47.0, "debt_mv": 30.5, "payout": 37.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 2.7, "np_cagr3": -38.6, "rev_yoy": 14.6, "np_yoy": -26.1, "np_vol": 111.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 82.0, "fwd_pe2": 55.8, "fwd_g1": 55.0, "fwd_g2": 47.0, "peg": 1.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["集成电路晶圆代工", 33.0], ["集成电路", 33.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 42.8, "ret_prev2_year": 35.5, "ret_ytd": 5.7, "ret_pivot": 154.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.4, "ret_60": -7.5, "ret_120": 9.1, "ret_250": 44.1, "mdd_250": -47.0, "vol_250": 71.4, "pos_52w": 53.8}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 44, "hard": 100, "bondness": 45}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 126.9 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.5%、固定资产占比 75%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 75%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.5%,稳定度 58%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.9%(经营现金流/市值 6.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.5%,稳定度 58%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 54.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 75%,资本开支/折旧 2.37 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 126.9 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 44%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -8% / 9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "晶合集成:PE 比行业中位高 45.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 63.9个百分点。"]}}