{"F": {"ts_code": "688244.SH", "name": "永信至诚", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "横向通用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20221019", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.22, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.5037, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 229763.403, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [56.4, 56.8, 59.6, 55.1, 53.6, 54.3], "rev_series": [2.9, 3.2, 3.3, 4.0, 3.6, 2.8], "np_series": [0.4, 0.5, 0.5, 0.3, 0.1, -0.5], "roe_series": [12.9, 10.0, 6.6, 2.9, 0.8, -4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.5, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -5.4, "ocf_yield": -3.3, "gm_median": 55.1, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 3.2, "npm_median": 7.6, "roe_median": 2.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.9, "fix_assets": 0.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.5, "capex_dep": 13.04, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 12.5, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 56.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -5.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -36.3, "np_yoy": -27.1, "np_vol": 263.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["数字风洞测试评估", 20.0], ["数字风洞及运营", 20.0], ["网络靶场及运营", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 41.6, "ret_prev2_year": -31.9, "ret_ytd": -37.7, "ret_pivot": -1.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.4, "ret_60": 0.4, "ret_120": -29.5, "ret_250": -47.2, "mdd_250": -54.3, "vol_250": 48.5, "pos_52w": 53.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 71, "hard": 9, "bondness": 43}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 12%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -3.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 55.1%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.4%(经营现金流/市值 -3.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 55.1%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 13.04 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -47%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 0% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "永信至诚:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点。"]}}