{"F": {"ts_code": "688238.SH", "name": "和元生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗服务", "sw3": "医疗研发外包", "ind": "医疗服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220322", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.49, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.2202, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 421224.8183, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [58.1, 51.3, 44.4, -6.6, -37.8, -14.5], "rev_series": [1.4, 2.5, 2.9, 2.0, 2.5, 2.7], "np_series": [0.9, 0.5, 0.4, -1.3, -3.2, -2.4], "roe_series": [20.2, 6.1, 2.5, -6.0, -16.9, -14.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.7, "np_ttm": -2.3, "ocf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -4.4, "ocf_yield": -2.3, "gm_median": -6.6, "gm_std": 34.7, "gm_stab": 6.26, "gm_chg_2022": -13.7, "npm_median": -62.4, "roe_median": -6.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 64.6, "fix_assets": 12.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.22, "capex_dep": 0.94, "interest_debt": 4.5, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 34.6, "debt_mv": 10.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -2.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 1.6, "np_yoy": 3.0, "np_vol": 161.6, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["细胞和基因治疗CDMO服务", 24.0], ["细胞和基因治疗CRO服务", 19.0], ["生物制剂、试剂及其他", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.8, "ret_prev2_year": -45.1, "ret_ytd": -2.6, "ret_pivot": 64.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.3, "ret_60": 23.6, "ret_120": -14.4, "ret_250": -24.5, "mdd_250": -38.6, "vol_250": 55.1, "pos_52w": 77.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 100, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 65%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 -6.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.7 个百分点;资产负债率 35%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 65%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 -6.6%,稳定度 626%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.4%(经营现金流/市值 -2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 -6.6%,稳定度 626%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 65%,资本开支/折旧 0.94 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / 24% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗服务」52 家中位:PE 73.1 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 41.3% / 固定资产占比 19% / 分红率 34%。", "和元生物:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 47.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 45.7个百分点。"]}}