{"F": {"ts_code": "688235.SH", "name": "百济神州", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "化学制剂", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20211215", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 271.0, "pe_ttm": 92.9984, "pb": 11.2394, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 39817455.48, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [77.7, 86.0, 80.2, 84.6, 84.4, 87.6], "rev_series": [21.2, 75.9, 95.7, 174.2, 272.1, 382.2], "np_series": [-113.8, -97.5, -136.4, -67.2, -49.8, 14.6], "roe_series": [-70.9, -29.9, -38.8, -24.2, -20.2, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 429.3, "np_ttm": 42.8, "ocf_ttm": 165.2, "fcf_ttm": 153.8, "fcf_yield": 3.9, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 84.6, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 2.5, "npm_median": -38.5, "roe_median": -24.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.2, "fix_assets": 107.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 11.24, "capex_dep": 1.35, "interest_debt": 78.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 43.3, "debt_mv": 2.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 58.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 26.8, "np_yoy": 627.1, "np_vol": 55.3, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["药品销售收入", 33.0], ["百悦泽？(BRUKINSA？)", 24.0], ["百泽安？", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 66.8, "ret_prev2_year": 15.8, "ret_ytd": 0.9, "ret_pivot": 85.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.5, "ret_60": 30.3, "ret_120": 18.5, "ret_250": 6.3, "mdd_250": -36.2, "vol_250": 48.8, "pos_52w": 83.1}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 86, "hard": 28, "bondness": 3}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 42.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 93 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 43%,有息负债 78 亿,经营现金流/市值 4.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 84.6%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.9%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 84.6%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 1.35 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 93.0 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 6%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / 30% / 18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "百济神州:PE 比行业中位高 55.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 32.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.6个百分点。"]}}