{"F": {"ts_code": "688234.SH", "name": "天岳先进", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体材料", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220112", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 97.43, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.6417, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 4721638.0455, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.3, 28.4, -5.8, 15.8, 25.9, 13.1], "rev_series": [4.2, 4.9, 4.2, 12.5, 17.7, 14.6], "np_series": [-6.4, 0.9, -1.8, -0.5, 1.8, -2.1], "roe_series": [-48.8, 4.1, -4.7, -0.9, 3.4, -3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.8, "np_ttm": -2.8, "ocf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_ttm": -8.6, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": -0.2, "gm_median": 15.8, "gm_std": 12.1, "gm_stab": 0.23, "gm_chg_2022": -41.0, "npm_median": -3.7, "roe_median": -0.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.1, "fix_assets": 39.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.64, "capex_dep": 2.22, "interest_debt": 16.4, "debt_ebitda": 5.5, "debt_ratio": 29.1, "debt_mv": 3.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 52.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 15.1, "np_yoy": -638.7, "np_vol": 278.6, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 726.2, "fwd_pe2": 201.6, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 260.0, "peg": 2.79, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 47.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 73.6, "ret_prev2_year": -22.5, "ret_ytd": 9.6, "ret_pivot": 112.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.9, "ret_60": -22.6, "ret_120": 17.5, "ret_250": 49.1, "mdd_250": -53.7, "vol_250": 77.6, "pos_52w": 55.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 20, "hard": 63, "bondness": 15}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 39%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -41.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.8%,稳定度 23%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 -0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.8%,稳定度 23%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -41.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 2.22 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 49%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 78%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -23% / 18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "天岳先进:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 19.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 27.7个百分点。"]}}