{"F": {"ts_code": "688233.SH", "name": "神工股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体材料", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200221", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 93.18, "pe_ttm": 168.3106, "pb": 8.3118, "dv_ttm": 0.1978, "total_mv": 1586908.5126, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [65.2, 64.1, 47.3, 0.1, 33.7, 44.8], "rev_series": [1.9, 4.7, 5.4, 1.4, 3.0, 4.4], "np_series": [1.0, 2.2, 1.6, -0.7, 0.4, 1.0], "roe_series": [12.8, 16.6, 10.6, -4.1, 2.3, 5.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.5, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 44.8, "gm_std": 21.3, "gm_stab": 0.52, "gm_chg_2022": -17.9, "npm_median": 28.0, "roe_median": 5.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.6, "fix_assets": 7.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.31, "capex_dep": 1.12, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 5.8, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 31.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -6.7, "np_cagr3": -13.6, "rev_yoy": 3.8, "np_yoy": -15.9, "np_vol": 118.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 66.3, "fwd_pe2": 41.7, "fwd_g1": 154.0, "fwd_g2": 59.0, "peg": 1.12, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 28.0], ["大直径硅材料", 18.0], ["大直径硅材料：16英寸以下", 10.0], ["16寸以下", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 201.2, "ret_prev2_year": -33.8, "ret_ytd": 33.4, "ret_pivot": 580.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -19.8, "ret_60": -6.4, "ret_120": 22.6, "ret_250": 139.4, "mdd_250": -64.7, "vol_250": 98.2, "pos_52w": 39.1}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 44, "hard": 60, "bondness": 32}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 168.3 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 44.8%、固定资产占比 38%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 44.8%,稳定度 52%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.8%,稳定度 52%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -17.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 1.12 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 168.3 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 139%,最大回撤 -65%,年化波动 98%,现价在 52 周高点的 39%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -20% / -6% / 23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "神工股份:PE 比行业中位高 86.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 26.2个百分点。"]}}