{"F": {"ts_code": "688232.SH", "name": "新点软件", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20211117", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.32, "pe_ttm": 167.8064, "pb": 1.1268, "dv_ttm": 0.542, "total_mv": 589871.024, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [68.5, 65.9, 66.0, 61.4, 61.2, 59.4], "rev_series": [21.2, 27.9, 28.2, 24.4, 21.5, 18.4], "np_series": [4.1, 5.0, 5.7, 1.9, 2.0, 0.4], "roe_series": [60.1, 16.6, 10.6, 3.5, 3.7, 0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.4, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 5.3, "gm_median": 61.4, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -2.5, "npm_median": 9.5, "roe_median": 3.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.3, "fix_assets": 10.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.13, "capex_dep": 8.66, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 16.1, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 90.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -13.4, "np_cagr3": -60.2, "rev_yoy": -14.6, "np_yoy": -1.6, "np_vol": 43.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 49.0, "fwd_pe2": 37.4, "fwd_g1": 243.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 1.58, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["智慧招采", 24.0], ["智慧政务", 13.0], ["数字网络建设", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -13.4, "ret_prev2_year": -19.4, "ret_ytd": -25.9, "ret_pivot": -6.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.8, "ret_60": -0.5, "ret_120": -24.4, "ret_250": -40.4, "mdd_250": -48.7, "vol_250": 36.4, "pos_52w": 55.5}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 70, "hard": 28, "bondness": 56}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 167.8 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 17%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(5 篇研报)前瞻 PE 49.0 倍,次年 37.4 倍,PEG 1.58。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 61.4%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 5.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 61.4%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 8.66 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 167.8 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -40%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -0% / -24%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "新点软件:PE 比行业中位高 85.1倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.5个百分点。"]}}