{"F": {"ts_code": "688231.SH", "name": "隆达股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "金属新材料", "sw3": "其他金属新材料", "ind": "金属新材料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220722", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.0, "pe_ttm": 84.6988, "pb": 3.8103, "dv_ttm": 0.5563, "total_mv": 1086569.62, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.0, 19.9, 18.3, 15.4, 15.9, 14.1], "rev_series": [5.4, 7.3, 9.5, 12.1, 13.9, 18.5], "np_series": [0.3, 0.7, 0.9, 0.6, 0.7, 0.7], "roe_series": [9.8, 15.0, 5.7, 2.0, 2.4, 2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.7, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_ttm": -5.3, "fcf_yield": -4.9, "ocf_yield": -1.4, "gm_median": 15.9, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": 0.3, "npm_median": 4.8, "roe_median": 2.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.9, "fix_assets": 10.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.81, "capex_dep": 5.38, "interest_debt": 8.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.4, "debt_ratio": 39.4, "debt_mv": 7.7, "payout": 88.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 24.8, "np_cagr3": -7.8, "rev_yoy": 62.3, "np_yoy": 102.3, "np_vol": 46.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 60.1, "fwd_pe2": 38.2, "fwd_g1": 41.0, "fwd_g2": 57.0, "peg": 1.05, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["高温钢", 27.0], ["高温合金", 27.0], ["合金管材", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 86.5, "ret_prev2_year": -35.0, "ret_ytd": 70.5, "ret_pivot": 304.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.5, "ret_60": 11.9, "ret_120": 31.2, "ret_250": 104.5, "mdd_250": -49.4, "vol_250": 68.4, "pos_52w": 77.6}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 46, "hard": 37, "bondness": 45}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 84.7 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%、固定资产占比 23%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 23%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.9%(经营现金流/市值 -1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 5.38 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 84.7 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 104%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 12% / 31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「金属新材料」35 家中位:PE 58.5 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 35%。", "隆达股份:PE 比行业中位高 26.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.9个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}