{"F": {"ts_code": "688228.SH", "name": "开普云", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200327", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 82.0, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.5705, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 553916.56, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [52.6, 44.7, 43.5, 42.8, 37.5, 39.5], "rev_series": [3.0, 4.6, 5.5, 6.9, 6.2, 4.2], "np_series": [0.7, 0.6, 1.0, 0.4, 0.2, -0.1], "roe_series": [9.8, 5.1, 7.9, 3.2, 1.6, -0.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.8, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 1.5, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 42.8, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -9.1, "npm_median": 8.6, "roe_median": 3.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.6, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 8.2, "pb_calc": 4.57, "capex_dep": 2.73, "interest_debt": 1.9, "debt_ebitda": 22.0, "debt_ratio": 26.0, "debt_mv": 3.4, "payout": 54.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -9.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -26.7, "np_yoy": -601.6, "np_vol": 69.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 338.2, "ret_prev2_year": -31.8, "ret_ytd": -57.9, "ret_pivot": 181.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.8, "ret_60": -0.6, "ret_120": -29.1, "ret_250": 3.9, "mdd_250": -77.7, "vol_250": 89.7, "pos_52w": 30.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 58, "hard": 11, "bondness": 54}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 26%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 42.8%),硬资产占比 7%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 42.8%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 2.73 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -78%,年化波动 90%,现价在 52 周高点的 31%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / -1% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "开普云:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点。"]}}