{"F": {"ts_code": "688223.SH", "name": "晶科能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "光伏电池组件", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220126", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.06, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.7937, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 4169381.378, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.9, 13.4, 10.4, 14.0, 7.3, -0.6], "rev_series": [336.6, 405.7, 826.8, 1186.8, 924.7, 654.9], "np_series": [10.4, 11.4, 29.4, 74.4, 1.0, -68.8], "roe_series": [9.8, 8.8, 14.6, 24.4, 0.3, -23.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 583.9, "np_ttm": -70.5, "ocf_ttm": 64.9, "fcf_ttm": 22.2, "fcf_yield": 5.3, "ocf_yield": 15.6, "gm_median": 10.4, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.49, "gm_chg_2022": -4.5, "npm_median": 2.8, "roe_median": 8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.0, "fix_assets": 355.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.73, "capex_dep": 0.58, "interest_debt": 399.9, "debt_ebitda": 9.8, "debt_ratio": 76.2, "debt_mv": 95.9, "payout": 60.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -7.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -22.3, "np_yoy": -5.8, "np_vol": 2846.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 12, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 19.3, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["光伏组件", 31.0], ["光伏产品", 31.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -20.7, "ret_prev2_year": -17.7, "ret_ytd": -28.0, "ret_pivot": -35.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.4, "ret_60": -20.2, "ret_120": -48.5, "ret_250": -29.1, "mdd_250": -53.0, "vol_250": 56.6, "pos_52w": 47.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 26, "hard": 50, "bondness": 56}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 31%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 10.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 9.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 10.4%,稳定度 49%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.3%(经营现金流/市值 15.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.4%,稳定度 49%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 0.58 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -20% / -48%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "晶科能源:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.4个百分点。"]}}