{"F": {"ts_code": "688222.SH", "name": "成都先导", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗服务", "sw3": "医疗研发外包", "ind": "医疗服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200416", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 31.44, "pe_ttm": 89.8922, "pb": 8.2566, "dv_ttm": 0.4135, "total_mv": 1259737.92, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [79.4, 47.0, 47.7, 49.2, 51.9, 54.2], "rev_series": [2.4, 3.1, 3.3, 3.7, 4.3, 5.3], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 1.1], "roe_series": [7.2, 4.9, 1.9, 3.1, 3.7, 7.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.4, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 49.2, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -31.7, "npm_median": 11.7, "roe_median": 3.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.0, "fix_assets": 4.6, "goodwill_ratio": 5.8, "pb_calc": 8.26, "capex_dep": 5.92, "interest_debt": 2.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 23.3, "debt_mv": 2.3, "payout": 48.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 16.8, "np_cagr3": 63.0, "rev_yoy": 52.4, "np_yoy": 61.2, "np_vol": 58.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 90.3, "fwd_pe2": 70.2, "fwd_g1": -1.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 3.11, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 25.0], ["新药研发服务", 25.0], ["新药研发服务：客户定制服务", 15.0], ["客户定制服务", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 92.3, "ret_prev2_year": -17.8, "ret_ytd": 34.8, "ret_pivot": 277.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.3, "ret_60": 26.7, "ret_120": 22.6, "ret_250": 33.4, "mdd_250": -43.3, "vol_250": 64.9, "pos_52w": 78.9}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 62, "hard": 37, "bondness": 26}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 89.9 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 49.2%、固定资产占比 23%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 49.2%),硬资产占比 23%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 49.2%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -31.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 5.92 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 89.9 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 33%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / 27% / 23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗服务」52 家中位:PE 73.1 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 41.3% / 固定资产占比 19% / 分红率 34%。", "成都先导:PE 比行业中位高 16.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.1个百分点。"]}}