{"F": {"ts_code": "688219.SH", "name": "会通股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "改性塑料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20201118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.56, "pe_ttm": 29.4258, "pb": 1.9215, "dv_ttm": 1.412, "total_mv": 579356.8704, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.8, 9.4, 10.5, 13.9, 13.5, 13.7], "rev_series": [41.2, 49.0, 51.8, 53.5, 60.9, 64.9], "np_series": [1.8, 0.5, 0.6, 1.5, 1.9, 1.9], "roe_series": [12.7, 3.2, 3.4, 7.9, 9.5, 7.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 71.0, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 4.3, "fcf_ttm": 3.0, "fcf_yield": 5.2, "ocf_yield": 7.4, "gm_median": 13.5, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -6.4, "npm_median": 2.7, "roe_median": 7.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.3, "fix_assets": 22.0, "goodwill_ratio": 2.1, "pb_calc": 1.92, "capex_dep": 0.77, "interest_debt": 15.8, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 57.9, "debt_mv": 27.2, "payout": 39.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.8, "np_cagr3": 48.7, "rev_yoy": 20.2, "np_yoy": 2.0, "np_vol": 71.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 47.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.2, "ret_prev2_year": -5.8, "ret_ytd": -13.9, "ret_pivot": 65.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.3, "ret_60": -7.0, "ret_120": -7.3, "ret_250": -25.8, "mdd_250": -30.4, "vol_250": 35.7, "pos_52w": 74.9}, "S": {"duration": 52, "pricing": 41, "hard": 48, "bondness": 46}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 30%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.5%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.2%(经营现金流/市值 7.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.5%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 0.77 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.4 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -7% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "会通股份:PE 比行业中位低 11.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点。"]}}