{"F": {"ts_code": "688215.SH", "name": "瑞晟智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "其他自动化设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200828", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 47.0, "pe_ttm": 73.2768, "pb": 8.5019, "dv_ttm": 0.2631, "total_mv": 424651.11, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.8, 31.4, 29.7, 31.6, 27.5, 32.4], "rev_series": [1.3, 2.0, 3.1, 3.7, 3.9, 4.3], "np_series": [0.2, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.4], "roe_series": [5.8, 3.1, 2.2, 2.5, 3.5, 7.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.3, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": -0.2, "gm_median": 31.4, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -11.0, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.3, "fix_assets": 2.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.5, "capex_dep": 1.2, "interest_debt": 2.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.2, "debt_ratio": 49.1, "debt_mv": 6.0, "payout": 35.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.3, "np_cagr3": 54.2, "rev_yoy": 50.8, "np_yoy": 609.3, "np_vol": 52.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品及相关配件,服务以及不动产租赁", 33.0], ["产品", 33.0], ["智能物流系统", 21.0], ["智能消防及通风系统", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 337.6, "ret_prev2_year": -27.2, "ret_ytd": -5.8, "ret_pivot": 449.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.6, "ret_60": 7.4, "ret_120": 6.4, "ret_250": 6.3, "mdd_250": -51.6, "vol_250": 53.1, "pos_52w": 76.0}, "S": {"duration": 84, "pricing": 52, "hard": 31, "bondness": 31}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 73.3 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.4%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 -0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.4%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 1.20 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 73.3 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 6%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 7% / 6%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "瑞晟智能:PE 比行业中位低 4.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.5个百分点。"]}}