{"F": {"ts_code": "688213.SH", "name": "思特威", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "数字芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220520", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 92.97, "pe_ttm": 33.0174, "pb": 6.931, "dv_ttm": 1.0794, "total_mv": 3740246.3196, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.9, 29.1, 22.1, 20.0, 21.1, 23.7], "rev_series": [15.3, 26.9, 24.8, 28.6, 59.7, 90.3], "np_series": [1.2, 4.0, -0.8, 0.1, 3.9, 10.0], "roe_series": [10.9, 16.4, -2.6, 0.4, 9.9, 21.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 98.4, "np_ttm": 11.3, "ocf_ttm": 26.0, "fcf_ttm": 19.7, "fcf_yield": 5.3, "ocf_yield": 6.9, "gm_median": 22.1, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 1.3, "npm_median": 6.6, "roe_median": 9.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.9, "fix_assets": 15.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.93, "capex_dep": 3.82, "interest_debt": 39.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 50.8, "debt_mv": 10.5, "payout": 40.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 53.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 21.5, "np_yoy": 33.2, "np_vol": 1033.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.0, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 26.6, "fwd_pe2": 20.4, "fwd_g1": 24.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 0.89, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["芯片销售", 100.0], ["服务收入", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.0, "ret_prev2_year": 41.2, "ret_ytd": -1.3, "ret_pivot": 128.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.0, "ret_60": 6.0, "ret_120": 10.8, "ret_250": -9.1, "mdd_250": -37.6, "vol_250": 47.0, "pos_52w": 77.2}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 50, "hard": 22, "bondness": 28}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 33%,PE TTM 33.0 倍 但前瞻 PE 26.6 倍,PEG 0.89。", "自由现金流 19.7 亿(正),次年预期增速 30%(13 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.3%(经营现金流/市值 6.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.1%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 3.82 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 33.0 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 6% / 11%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "思特威:PE 比行业中位低 48.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点。"]}}