{"F": {"ts_code": "688210.SH", "name": "统联精密", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20211227", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 32.94, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.3164, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 535803.687, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [49.6, 39.8, 42.3, 39.8, 38.3, 34.2], "rev_series": [3.4, 3.5, 5.1, 5.6, 8.1, 8.6], "np_series": [0.7, 0.5, 0.9, 0.6, 0.7, -0.0], "roe_series": [27.3, 6.7, 8.1, 4.9, 6.0, -0.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.9, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": 3.6, "gm_median": 39.8, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -7.2, "npm_median": 12.2, "roe_median": 6.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.6, "fix_assets": 8.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.22, "capex_dep": 2.86, "interest_debt": 15.3, "debt_ebitda": 13.1, "debt_ratio": 58.6, "debt_mv": 28.6, "payout": 167.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 19.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -16.9, "np_yoy": -1281.1, "np_vol": 68.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["其他金属工艺制品及塑胶制品", 24.0], ["其他金属工艺制品", 24.0], ["MIM产品", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 179.3, "ret_prev2_year": -23.2, "ret_ytd": -40.5, "ret_pivot": 90.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 16.5, "ret_60": -21.9, "ret_120": -27.2, "ret_250": -19.7, "mdd_250": -63.1, "vol_250": 72.3, "pos_52w": 51.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 56, "hard": 44, "bondness": 51}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 59%,有息负债 15 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.8%),硬资产占比 28%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 3.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.8%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 2.86 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -63%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / -22% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "统联精密:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.8个百分点。"]}}