{"F": {"ts_code": "688209.SH", "name": "英集芯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "模拟芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220419", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.5, "pe_ttm": 65.0949, "pb": 6.4525, "dv_ttm": 0.1787, "total_mv": 1496554.8, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.5, 44.9, 40.5, 31.3, 33.5, 34.4], "rev_series": [3.9, 7.8, 8.7, 12.2, 14.3, 16.1], "np_series": [0.6, 1.6, 1.5, 0.3, 1.2, 1.8], "roe_series": [17.3, 26.7, 12.7, 1.6, 6.5, 8.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.2, "np_ttm": 2.3, "ocf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_yield": -1.3, "ocf_yield": -0.8, "gm_median": 34.4, "gm_std": 5.0, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 5.1, "npm_median": 10.9, "roe_median": 8.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.0, "fix_assets": 1.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 6.45, "capex_dep": 3.88, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 8.5, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 62.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 22.9, "np_cagr3": 4.7, "rev_yoy": 15.2, "np_yoy": 100.0, "np_vol": 140.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 58.5, "fwd_pe2": 42.1, "fwd_g1": 11.0, "fwd_g2": 39.0, "peg": 1.5, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["电源管理芯片", 23.0], ["电源管理类", 23.0], ["电池管理类", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.5, "ret_prev2_year": -0.9, "ret_ytd": 73.6, "ret_pivot": 246.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 55.2, "ret_60": 58.7, "ret_120": 63.9, "ret_250": 63.9, "mdd_250": -31.8, "vol_250": 62.2, "pos_52w": 100.0}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 58, "hard": 8, "bondness": 23}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 65.1 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 5%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 58.5 倍,次年 42.1 倍,PEG 1.50。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.4%),硬资产占比 5%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.3%(经营现金流/市值 -0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.4%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 3.88 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 65.1 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 64%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 100%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 55% / 59% / 64%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;已在高位,贴现率冲击时跌幅按 PE 放大。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "英集芯:PE 比行业中位低 16.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.4个百分点。"]}}