{"F": {"ts_code": "688208.SH", "name": "道通科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200213", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.68, "pe_ttm": 19.356, "pb": 4.6021, "dv_ttm": 4.1614, "total_mv": 1721038.7034, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [64.3, 57.6, 57.0, 54.9, 55.3, 56.1], "rev_series": [15.8, 22.5, 22.7, 32.5, 39.3, 48.3], "np_series": [4.3, 4.4, 1.0, 1.8, 6.4, 9.4], "roe_series": [23.4, 16.3, 3.5, 5.7, 18.9, 25.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 51.5, "np_ttm": 8.9, "ocf_ttm": 9.7, "fcf_ttm": 8.2, "fcf_yield": 4.8, "ocf_yield": 5.6, "gm_median": 56.1, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -7.3, "npm_median": 14.2, "roe_median": 16.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.0, "fix_assets": 11.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.38, "capex_dep": 0.88, "interest_debt": 13.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 49.8, "debt_mv": 8.0, "payout": 100.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 28.7, "np_cagr3": 109.3, "rev_yoy": 13.4, "np_yoy": -9.7, "np_vol": 111.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 14.9, "fwd_pe2": 11.7, "fwd_g1": 30.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 0.53, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["汽车诊断产品", 12.0], ["汽车综合诊断产品", 12.0], ["智能充电网络", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 46.0, "ret_prev2_year": 77.8, "ret_ytd": -29.3, "ret_pivot": 74.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.7, "ret_60": -4.0, "ret_120": -23.4, "ret_250": -33.9, "mdd_250": -42.4, "vol_250": 42.7, "pos_52w": 62.0}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 66, "hard": 26, "bondness": 63}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 16%)但有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 56.1%,稳定度 98%、ROE 近 5 年中位 16.3%。", "自由现金流/市值 4.8%,分红率 100%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 56.1%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.8%(经营现金流/市值 5.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 56.1%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.88 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.4 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -4% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "道通科技:PE 比行业中位低 32.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 20.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.3个百分点。"]}}