{"F": {"ts_code": "688205.SH", "name": "德科立", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信网络设备及器件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220809", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 194.0, "pe_ttm": 217.983, "pb": 12.5917, "dv_ttm": 0.0512, "total_mv": 3089207.5, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.4, 34.3, 31.5, 26.3, 30.9, 27.6], "rev_series": [6.6, 7.3, 7.1, 8.2, 8.4, 9.3], "np_series": [1.4, 1.3, 1.0, 0.9, 1.0, 0.7], "roe_series": [38.6, 21.6, 8.0, 4.5, 4.6, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.5, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_ttm": -3.5, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 30.9, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -2.9, "npm_median": 11.9, "roe_median": 4.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.2, "fix_assets": 5.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 12.59, "capex_dep": 6.36, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 19.7, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 53.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 9.3, "np_cagr3": -11.0, "rev_yoy": 25.8, "np_yoy": 249.7, "np_vol": 12.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 151.6, "fwd_pe2": 86.5, "fwd_g1": 44.0, "fwd_g2": 75.0, "peg": 2.02, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["传输类", 33.0], ["传输", 33.0], ["接入和数据类", 16.0], ["接入和数据", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 97.3, "ret_prev2_year": 124.4, "ret_ytd": 41.1, "ret_pivot": 777.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 37.2, "ret_60": -17.9, "ret_120": 6.4, "ret_250": 95.0, "mdd_250": -63.6, "vol_250": 100.8, "pos_52w": 65.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 53, "hard": 31, "bondness": 30}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 218.0 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(5 篇研报)前瞻 PE 151.6 倍,次年 86.5 倍,PEG 2.02。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.9%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.9%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 6.36 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 218.0 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 95%,最大回撤 -64%,年化波动 101%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 37% / -18% / 6%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "德科立:PE 比行业中位高 133.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点。"]}}