{"F": {"ts_code": "688203.SH", "name": "海正生材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "改性塑料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220816", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.98, "pe_ttm": 102.6393, "pb": 1.8955, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 283343.9838, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.0, 15.1, 13.4, 13.1, 12.5, 10.7], "rev_series": [2.6, 5.9, 6.1, 7.5, 8.5, 8.5], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.4, 0.4, 0.1], "roe_series": [8.2, 5.5, 4.5, 3.0, 2.4, 0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.5, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 13.1, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -12.6, "npm_median": 5.8, "roe_median": 3.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 57.5, "fix_assets": 11.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.9, "capex_dep": 1.03, "interest_debt": 1.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 26.5, "debt_mv": 6.5, "payout": 52.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 12.0, "np_cagr3": -40.6, "rev_yoy": 48.5, "np_yoy": 557.6, "np_vol": 36.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["纯聚乳酸", 40.0], ["改性聚乳酸", 6.0], ["复合改性聚乳酸", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.0, "ret_prev2_year": -24.8, "ret_ytd": 9.4, "ret_pivot": 76.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 34.8, "ret_60": 27.7, "ret_120": 7.5, "ret_250": -0.4, "mdd_250": -48.0, "vol_250": 49.9, "pos_52w": 83.7}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 41, "hard": 92, "bondness": 31}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 58%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 1.03 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 102.6 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -0%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 35% / 28% / 8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "海正生材:PE 比行业中位高 61.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 25.6个百分点。"]}}