{"F": {"ts_code": "688201.SH", "name": "ST信安", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "横向通用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210421", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.5, "pe_ttm": 101.3613, "pb": 1.8705, "dv_ttm": 0.3289, "total_mv": 237865.35, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [70.8, 72.1, 71.5, 69.2, 71.2, 69.2], "rev_series": [4.2, 5.2, 6.6, 5.5, 5.0, 5.4], "np_series": [1.1, 1.5, 1.6, 0.1, -0.5, 0.2], "roe_series": [27.9, 21.3, 15.0, 0.9, -3.6, 1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.5, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 71.2, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 0.8, "npm_median": 5.5, "roe_median": 1.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.7, "fix_assets": 4.3, "goodwill_ratio": 17.7, "pb_calc": 1.87, "capex_dep": 0.33, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 15.1, "debt_mv": 1.9, "payout": 75.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -6.3, "np_cagr3": -50.0, "rev_yoy": 4.0, "np_yoy": 12.5, "np_vol": 233.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["信息安全产品", 40.0], ["服务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 65.9, "ret_prev2_year": -33.6, "ret_ytd": -48.6, "ret_pivot": 11.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.9, "ret_60": 5.0, "ret_120": -52.0, "ret_250": -43.3, "mdd_250": -62.8, "vol_250": 55.2, "pos_52w": 44.1}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 78, "hard": 44, "bondness": 51}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 101.4 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 71.2%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 71.2%),硬资产占比 28%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 71.2%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 0.33 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 101.4 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -43%,最大回撤 -63%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 5% / -52%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "ST信安:PE 比行业中位高 18.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 22.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.9个百分点。"]}}