{"F": {"ts_code": "688196.SH", "name": "卓越新能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20191121", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 35.58, "pe_ttm": 84.9486, "pb": 1.4564, "dv_ttm": 1.4053, "total_mv": 452544.8664, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.4, 10.6, 11.7, 7.7, 7.1, 11.2], "rev_series": [16.0, 30.8, 43.4, 28.1, 35.6, 28.8], "np_series": [2.4, 3.4, 4.5, 0.8, 1.5, 1.5], "roe_series": [11.3, 14.7, 17.2, 2.9, 5.4, 5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.9, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": -2.4, "fcf_ttm": -7.7, "fcf_yield": -16.9, "ocf_yield": -5.4, "gm_median": 10.6, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -3.6, "npm_median": 5.4, "roe_median": 5.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.9, "fix_assets": 13.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.46, "capex_dep": 6.67, "interest_debt": 8.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.5, "debt_ratio": 25.5, "debt_mv": 18.6, "payout": 40.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -12.8, "np_cagr3": -30.1, "rev_yoy": 8.6, "np_yoy": -86.3, "np_vol": 56.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 14.7, "fwd_pe2": 9.4, "fwd_g1": 479.0, "fwd_g2": 57.0, "peg": 0.26, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["生物柴油", 42.0], ["天然脂肪醇", 5.0], ["工业甘油", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 79.2, "ret_prev2_year": 0.9, "ret_ytd": -39.1, "ret_pivot": 93.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.3, "ret_60": -7.5, "ret_120": -54.9, "ret_250": -26.2, "mdd_250": -65.1, "vol_250": 59.4, "pos_52w": 39.4}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 39, "hard": 51, "bondness": 53}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 10.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 10.6%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -16.9%(经营现金流/市值 -5.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.6%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 6.67 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 84.9 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -65%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 39%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -8% / -55%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "卓越新能:PE 比行业中位高 49.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.6个百分点。"]}}