{"F": {"ts_code": "688191.SH", "name": "智洋创新", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "电网自动化设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210408", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.98, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 7.832, "dv_ttm": 0.3535, "total_mv": 655349.3946, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.8, 35.0, 32.0, 34.9, 31.8, 28.7], "rev_series": [5.0, 6.6, 6.7, 8.0, 9.7, 11.8], "np_series": [0.9, 0.7, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6], "roe_series": [26.5, 11.6, 3.4, 4.9, 5.8, 7.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.3, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.0, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 32.0, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -8.8, "npm_median": 5.2, "roe_median": 5.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.2, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.83, "capex_dep": 6.36, "interest_debt": 4.3, "debt_ebitda": 36.1, "debt_ratio": 58.3, "debt_mv": 6.6, "payout": 74.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 20.7, "np_cagr3": 30.5, "rev_yoy": -11.6, "np_yoy": -340.7, "np_vol": 38.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["输电线路智能运维分析管理系统", 27.0], ["输电场景人工智能解决方案", 27.0], ["变电智能运维解决方案", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 192.9, "ret_prev2_year": -6.7, "ret_ytd": -13.1, "ret_pivot": 210.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.8, "ret_60": -40.5, "ret_120": -45.1, "ret_250": 8.9, "mdd_250": -60.3, "vol_250": 69.5, "pos_52w": 47.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 52, "hard": 15, "bondness": 43}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 为负(亏损),估值里约 100% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.0%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.0%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 6.36 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 9%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 70%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -40% / -45%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "智洋创新:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.7个百分点。"]}}