{"F": {"ts_code": "688188.SH", "name": "柏楚电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20190808", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 96.0, "pe_ttm": 30.9099, "pb": 6.1411, "dv_ttm": 1.9284, "total_mv": 3893350.08, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [80.7, 80.3, 79.0, 80.3, 79.9, 77.7], "rev_series": [5.7, 9.1, 9.0, 14.1, 17.4, 22.0], "np_series": [3.7, 5.5, 4.8, 7.3, 8.8, 11.1], "roe_series": [16.0, 20.1, 13.2, 15.8, 16.9, 19.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.7, "np_ttm": 12.6, "ocf_ttm": 10.6, "fcf_ttm": 10.2, "fcf_yield": 2.6, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 79.9, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": -1.8, "npm_median": 53.7, "roe_median": 16.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.5, "fix_assets": 4.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 6.14, "capex_dep": 0.93, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 5.3, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 117.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 34.7, "np_cagr3": 32.4, "rev_yoy": 15.8, "np_yoy": 23.0, "np_vol": 23.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["平面解决方案", 46.0], ["管材解决方案", 18.0], ["其他收入", 17.0], ["其他", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.5, "ret_prev2_year": 9.3, "ret_ytd": 0.3, "ret_pivot": 24.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.8, "ret_60": -12.3, "ret_120": -8.7, "ret_250": -8.5, "mdd_250": -28.1, "vol_250": 38.0, "pos_52w": 76.4}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 81, "hard": 10, "bondness": 47}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 6%)但有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 79.9%,稳定度 99%、ROE 近 5 年中位 16.9%。", "自由现金流/市值 2.6%,分红率 117%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 79.9%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 79.9%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.93 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.9 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -12% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "柏楚电子:PE 比行业中位低 20.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 44.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点。"]}}