{"F": {"ts_code": "688187.SH", "name": "时代电气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "轨交设备Ⅲ", "ind": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210907", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 46.33, "pe_ttm": 14.9013, "pb": 1.4538, "dv_ttm": 2.4174, "total_mv": 6165148.8522, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.2, 33.7, 32.7, 33.9, 32.5, 33.4], "rev_series": [160.3, 151.2, 180.3, 218.0, 249.1, 287.0], "np_series": [24.8, 20.2, 25.6, 31.1, 37.0, 41.0], "roe_series": [10.8, 7.1, 7.6, 8.7, 9.4, 9.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 295.6, "np_ttm": 41.4, "ocf_ttm": 35.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 33.4, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -4.5, "npm_median": 14.5, "roe_median": 8.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.0, "fix_assets": 148.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.45, "capex_dep": 2.56, "interest_debt": 13.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 35.3, "debt_mv": 2.2, "payout": 37.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 16.8, "np_cagr3": 17.0, "rev_yoy": 7.0, "np_yoy": 2.4, "np_vol": 16.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 66.0, "earn_yield": 6.7, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 13.9, "fwd_pe2": 12.5, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 1.16, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["轨道交通装备", 29.0], ["轨道交通板块", 29.0], ["新兴装备板块", 21.0], ["新兴装备", 21.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.5, "ret_prev2_year": 37.0, "ret_ytd": -8.5, "ret_pivot": 14.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.9, "ret_60": -14.4, "ret_120": -16.1, "ret_250": -5.6, "mdd_250": -34.4, "vol_250": 47.5, "pos_52w": 68.2}, "S": {"duration": 31, "pricing": 55, "hard": 34, "bondness": 31}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 14.9 倍、股息率 2.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 33.4%、固定资产占比 21%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.4%),硬资产占比 21%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.4%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 2.56 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.9 倍 粗算,约 66%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -14% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「轨交设备Ⅱ」32 家中位:PE 26.2 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 30.0% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 49%。", "时代电气:PE 比行业中位低 11.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.0个百分点。"]}}