{"F": {"ts_code": "688186.SH", "name": "广大特材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "风电设备", "sw3": "风电零部件", "ind": "风电设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200211", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.96, "pe_ttm": 118.1651, "pb": 0.8515, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 391563.2024, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.9, 18.8, 15.9, 14.7, 16.6, 17.3], "rev_series": [18.1, 27.4, 33.7, 37.9, 40.0, 49.1], "np_series": [1.7, 1.8, 1.0, 1.1, 1.1, 2.1], "roe_series": [12.5, 7.2, 3.1, 3.1, 3.2, 4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 47.0, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -7.6, "fcf_ttm": -10.3, "fcf_yield": -26.2, "ocf_yield": -19.3, "gm_median": 16.6, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -6.0, "npm_median": 3.5, "roe_median": 3.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.5, "fix_assets": 54.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 0.85, "capex_dep": 0.73, "interest_debt": 43.7, "debt_ebitda": 6.9, "debt_ratio": 59.7, "debt_mv": 111.7, "payout": 86.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 13.4, "np_cagr3": 26.0, "rev_yoy": -8.4, "np_yoy": -93.3, "np_vol": 39.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 11.7, "fwd_pe2": 8.9, "fwd_g1": 912.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 0.38, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["合金制品", 33.0], ["合金材料", 16.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 51.5, "ret_prev2_year": -14.6, "ret_ytd": -38.4, "ret_pivot": 60.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.8, "ret_60": -18.1, "ret_120": -47.8, "ret_250": -48.6, "mdd_250": -56.2, "vol_250": 46.1, "pos_52w": 46.2}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 44, "hard": 70, "bondness": 52}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.6%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -26.2%(经营现金流/市值 -19.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.6%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 0.73 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 118.2 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -49%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -18% / -48%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「风电设备」31 家中位:PE 32.3 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 17.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "广大特材:PE 比行业中位高 85.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.2个百分点。"]}}