{"F": {"ts_code": "688185.SH", "name": "康希诺", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "疫苗", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200813", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 68.93, "pe_ttm": 419.0419, "pb": 3.4209, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1702872.9134, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.4, 69.8, 59.7, 27.4, 75.8, 77.5], "rev_series": [0.2, 43.0, 10.3, 3.6, 8.5, 10.7], "np_series": [-4.0, 19.1, -9.1, -14.8, -3.8, 0.3], "roe_series": [-10.5, 27.2, -12.3, -24.7, -7.4, 0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.4, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": -0.2, "gm_median": 69.8, "gm_std": 18.4, "gm_stab": 0.74, "gm_chg_2022": 17.4, "npm_median": -45.3, "roe_median": -7.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.3, "fix_assets": 25.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.42, "capex_dep": 1.05, "interest_debt": 9.8, "debt_ebitda": 4.2, "debt_ratio": 27.1, "debt_mv": 5.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 1.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 43.8, "np_yoy": 94.7, "np_vol": 253.3, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["疫苗及相关产品销售", 30.0], ["疫苗", 30.0], ["疫苗技术转移服务及药品生产工艺研究开发业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.9, "ret_prev2_year": -18.1, "ret_ytd": 9.7, "ret_pivot": 73.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 27.0, "ret_60": 39.5, "ret_120": -1.5, "ret_250": -21.8, "mdd_250": -43.7, "vol_250": 56.2, "pos_52w": 74.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 72, "hard": 60, "bondness": 32}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 419 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 27%,有息负债 10 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 69.8%,稳定度 74%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 -0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 69.8%,稳定度 74%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 17.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 1.05 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 419.0 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 27% / 40% / -2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "康希诺:PE 比行业中位高 386.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.2个百分点。"]}}