{"F": {"ts_code": "688180.SH", "name": "君实生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "其他生物制品", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200715", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.49, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.7849, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 3438384.4751, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [76.6, 69.1, 65.3, 64.0, 78.9, 81.3], "rev_series": [15.9, 40.2, 14.5, 15.0, 19.5, 25.0], "np_series": [-16.7, -7.2, -23.9, -22.8, -12.8, -8.8], "roe_series": [-37.9, -10.5, -27.4, -27.5, -19.7, -14.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.3, "np_ttm": -4.4, "ocf_ttm": -2.6, "fcf_ttm": -10.5, "fcf_yield": -3.1, "ocf_yield": -0.8, "gm_median": 69.1, "gm_std": 7.1, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -11.3, "npm_median": -70.8, "roe_median": -19.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.3, "fix_assets": 50.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.78, "capex_dep": 3.28, "interest_debt": 59.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 56.7, "debt_mv": 17.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 19.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 45.2, "np_yoy": 105.2, "np_vol": 107.6, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 553.6, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["药品销售收入", 28.0], ["药品销售", 28.0], ["技术转让与服务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.0, "ret_prev2_year": -34.7, "ret_ytd": -2.0, "ret_pivot": 44.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.7, "ret_60": 13.8, "ret_120": 8.0, "ret_250": -28.2, "mdd_250": -40.7, "vol_250": 47.5, "pos_52w": 68.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 56, "bondness": 3}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -4.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 57%,有息负债 59 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 35%、毛利率 69.1% 两条都占,但所在行业(医药生物)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.1%(经营现金流/市值 -0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 69.1%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 3.28 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -15% / 14% / 8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "君实生物:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.2个百分点。"]}}