{"F": {"ts_code": "688170.SH", "name": "德龙激光", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "激光设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220429", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 61.9, "pe_ttm": 2027.0617, "pb": 5.2471, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 639798.4, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [51.5, 50.7, 49.7, 46.6, 43.2, 40.9], "rev_series": [4.2, 5.5, 5.7, 5.8, 7.2, 7.9], "np_series": [0.7, 0.9, 0.7, 0.4, -0.3, 0.3], "roe_series": [17.9, 16.4, 7.1, 3.0, -2.7, 2.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.7, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -2.0, "ocf_yield": -0.7, "gm_median": 46.6, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -1.8, "npm_median": 6.7, "roe_median": 3.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.5, "fix_assets": 4.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.25, "capex_dep": 2.71, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 37.0, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 78.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 11.5, "np_cagr3": -27.3, "rev_yoy": -6.6, "np_yoy": -146.5, "np_vol": 117.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["精密激光加工设备", 29.0], ["零部件销售及维修", 7.0], ["激光器", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.9, "ret_prev2_year": -42.0, "ret_ytd": 96.8, "ret_pivot": 217.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.7, "ret_60": -12.1, "ret_120": 23.8, "ret_250": 66.7, "mdd_250": -57.0, "vol_250": 81.4, "pos_52w": 64.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 62, "hard": 34, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 2027.1 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 46.6%、固定资产占比 22%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 46.6%),硬资产占比 22%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.0%(经营现金流/市值 -0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 46.6%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 2.71 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 2027.1 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 67%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 81%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 15% / -12% / 24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "德龙激光:PE 比行业中位高 1949.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.7个百分点。"]}}