{"F": {"ts_code": "688169.SH", "name": "石头科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "小家电", "sw3": "清洁小家电", "ind": "小家电", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200221", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 132.0, "pe_ttm": 20.4878, "pb": 2.3603, "dv_ttm": 0.3936, "total_mv": 3426074.52, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [51.3, 48.1, 49.3, 55.1, 50.1, 42.4], "rev_series": [45.3, 58.4, 66.3, 86.5, 119.4, 186.9], "np_series": [13.7, 14.0, 11.8, 20.5, 19.8, 13.6], "roe_series": [31.9, 18.0, 13.1, 19.6, 16.3, 10.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 208.8, "np_ttm": 16.7, "ocf_ttm": 19.9, "fcf_ttm": 16.5, "fcf_yield": 4.8, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 49.3, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": 17.9, "roe_median": 16.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.5, "fix_assets": 14.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.36, "capex_dep": 1.2, "interest_debt": 11.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 34.5, "debt_mv": 3.3, "payout": 19.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 41.3, "np_cagr3": 4.8, "rev_yoy": 27.6, "np_yoy": 45.6, "np_vol": 36.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.9, "consensus_n": 22, "fwd_pe": 17.5, "fwd_pe2": 13.7, "fwd_g1": 17.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 0.62, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["销售智能清洁设备", 33.0], ["智能清洁产品及配件", 33.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.5, "ret_prev2_year": 10.4, "ret_ytd": -12.9, "ret_pivot": -20.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 23.8, "ret_60": 32.4, "ret_120": -0.2, "ret_250": -37.5, "mdd_250": -58.1, "vol_250": 45.4, "pos_52w": 60.7}, "S": {"duration": 40, "pricing": 63, "hard": 10, "bondness": 11}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 46%,PE TTM 20.5 倍 但前瞻 PE 17.5 倍,PEG 0.62。", "自由现金流 16.5 亿(正),次年预期增速 28%(22 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 49.3%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.8%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 49.3%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 1.20 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.5 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 24% / 32% / -0%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小家电」23 家中位:PE 50.5 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 50%。", "石头科技:PE 比行业中位低 30.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 21.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.2个百分点。"]}}