{"F": {"ts_code": "688167.SH", "name": "炬光科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "分立器件", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20211224", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 299.5, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 17.1422, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 3897663.05, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [51.0, 54.3, 54.3, 48.0, 28.1, 35.8], "rev_series": [3.6, 4.8, 5.5, 5.6, 6.2, 8.8], "np_series": [0.3, 0.7, 1.3, 0.9, -1.7, -0.4], "roe_series": [6.6, 4.6, 5.3, 3.7, -7.7, -1.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.1, "np_ttm": -0.8, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 48.0, "gm_std": 10.5, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": 3.3, "npm_median": 13.6, "roe_median": 3.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.5, "fix_assets": 10.3, "goodwill_ratio": 9.8, "pb_calc": 17.14, "capex_dep": 2.08, "interest_debt": 4.9, "debt_ebitda": 4.8, "debt_ratio": 26.0, "debt_mv": 1.3, "payout": 30.7, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 16.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 6.6, "np_yoy": -169.6, "np_vol": 147.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 465.9, "fwd_pe2": 152.4, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 206.0, "peg": 2.26, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["激光光学元器件", 32.0], ["激光光学产品", 32.0], ["激光光源与应用产品", 15.0], ["全球光子工艺和制造服务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 174.8, "ret_prev2_year": -44.0, "ret_ytd": 148.1, "ret_pivot": 972.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 35.6, "ret_60": -11.6, "ret_120": 31.8, "ret_250": 210.7, "mdd_250": -61.8, "vol_250": 101.2, "pos_52w": 72.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 61, "hard": 54, "bondness": 28}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 26%,有息负债 5 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 48.0%,稳定度 78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 48.0%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 2.08 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 211%,最大回撤 -62%,年化波动 101%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 36% / -12% / 32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "炬光科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.1个百分点。"]}}