{"F": {"ts_code": "688163.SH", "name": "赛伦生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "其他生物制品", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220311", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.35, "pe_ttm": 68.256, "pb": 3.3186, "dv_ttm": 1.1063, "total_mv": 371735.7, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [84.1, 83.7, 83.8, 75.7, 78.1, 78.1], "rev_series": [1.9, 2.1, 1.7, 1.9, 1.9, 2.0], "np_series": [0.6, 0.8, 0.6, 0.4, 0.4, 0.5], "roe_series": [20.0, 23.0, 8.6, 3.5, 4.1, 4.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.0, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 78.1, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -0.3, "npm_median": 26.4, "roe_median": 4.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.4, "fix_assets": 2.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.32, "capex_dep": 3.34, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 5.4, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 78.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.0, "np_cagr3": -6.9, "rev_yoy": 3.4, "np_yoy": 8.1, "np_vol": 23.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["抗血清抗毒素", 50.0], ["抗蛇毒血清", 50.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.7, "ret_prev2_year": -11.1, "ret_ytd": 59.7, "ret_pivot": 135.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.1, "ret_60": -8.5, "ret_120": 44.5, "ret_250": 36.4, "mdd_250": -49.7, "vol_250": 54.9, "pos_52w": 66.8}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 80, "hard": 33, "bondness": 50}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 68.3 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 78.1%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 78.1%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 78.1%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 3.34 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 68.3 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 36%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -8% / 44%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "赛伦生物:PE 比行业中位高 36.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点。"]}}