{"F": {"ts_code": "688160.SH", "name": "步科股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "工控设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20201112", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 97.49, "pe_ttm": 107.5206, "pb": 6.6496, "dv_ttm": 0.3064, "total_mv": 889256.9848, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.3, 35.0, 37.9, 38.2, 36.0, 36.2], "rev_series": [4.3, 5.4, 5.4, 5.1, 5.5, 7.2], "np_series": [0.7, 0.7, 0.9, 0.6, 0.5, 0.7], "roe_series": [16.1, 11.9, 13.3, 8.3, 6.4, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.6, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 36.2, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": 12.0, "roe_median": 8.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.4, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.65, "capex_dep": 5.88, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 19.2, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 41.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.3, "np_cagr3": -7.3, "rev_yoy": 44.0, "np_yoy": 39.2, "np_vol": 29.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 87.8, "fwd_pe2": 62.5, "fwd_g1": 22.0, "fwd_g2": 41.0, "peg": 2.14, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["驱动系统", 36.0], ["控制系统", 13.0], ["其他主营业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 168.1, "ret_prev2_year": -0.9, "ret_ytd": -35.9, "ret_pivot": 211.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.1, "ret_60": -8.9, "ret_120": -14.2, "ret_250": 0.1, "mdd_250": -41.8, "vol_250": 73.0, "pos_52w": 60.1}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 59, "hard": 18, "bondness": 28}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 107.5 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 11%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(5 篇研报)前瞻 PE 87.8 倍,次年 62.5 倍,PEG 2.14。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.2%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.2%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 5.88 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 107.5 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 0%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 73%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -15% / -9% / -14%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "步科股份:PE 比行业中位高 30.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.4个百分点。"]}}