{"F": {"ts_code": "688159.SH", "name": "有方科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信终端及配件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200123", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.8, "pe_ttm": 84.1652, "pb": 3.2657, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 322981.236, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.7, 15.3, 14.4, 15.2, 10.9, 13.2], "rev_series": [5.7, 10.2, 8.4, 9.3, 30.7, 24.1], "np_series": [-0.8, -0.1, -0.6, -0.4, 1.0, 0.3], "roe_series": [-11.1, -1.5, -7.1, -5.1, 12.5, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.0, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 14.4, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -0.3, "npm_median": -1.4, "roe_median": -1.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.0, "fix_assets": 1.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.27, "capex_dep": 1.44, "interest_debt": 12.7, "debt_ebitda": 9.8, "debt_ratio": 64.0, "debt_mv": 39.3, "payout": 18.2, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 42.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -42.0, "np_yoy": 17.4, "np_vol": 227.0, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["无线通信模块", 15.0], ["存算服务器贸易", 15.0], ["无线通信终端产品业务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 60.4, "ret_prev2_year": -19.7, "ret_ytd": -28.0, "ret_pivot": 56.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.2, "ret_60": -17.7, "ret_120": -20.0, "ret_250": -51.3, "mdd_250": -65.6, "vol_250": 64.5, "pos_52w": 42.1}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 46, "hard": 8, "bondness": 21}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 84 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 64%,有息负债 13 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.4%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 1.44 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 84.2 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -51%,最大回撤 -66%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 42%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -18% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "有方科技:PE 比行业中位低 0.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 14.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.2个百分点。"]}}