{"F": {"ts_code": "688158.SH", "name": "优刻得", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200120", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.84, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.5852, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1374744.0184, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.6, 3.4, 8.3, 11.1, 18.9, 25.7], "rev_series": [24.6, 29.0, 19.7, 15.2, 15.0, 17.0], "np_series": [-3.4, -6.3, -4.1, -3.4, -2.4, -0.7], "roe_series": [-13.7, -21.3, -14.6, -12.2, -9.6, -3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.9, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": -4.4, "fcf_yield": -3.2, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 11.1, "gm_std": 7.9, "gm_stab": 0.29, "gm_chg_2022": -0.2, "npm_median": -21.3, "roe_median": -12.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 58.3, "fix_assets": 22.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.59, "capex_dep": 3.07, "interest_debt": 5.3, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 35.8, "debt_mv": 3.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -4.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 24.1, "np_yoy": 150.8, "np_vol": 52.0, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 145.6, "fwd_pe2": 72.8, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 100.0, "peg": 1.46, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["云计算业务", 59.0], ["IDC及AIDC服务", 29.0], ["云通信", 10.0], ["其他公有云", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 100.9, "ret_prev2_year": -15.0, "ret_ytd": 6.2, "ret_pivot": 204.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.8, "ret_60": -13.7, "ret_120": -30.6, "ret_250": 4.6, "mdd_250": -49.6, "vol_250": 77.0, "pos_52w": 56.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 23, "hard": 93, "bondness": 28}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 58%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.1%,稳定度 29%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.1%,稳定度 29%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 3.07 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 77%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -16% / -14% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "优刻得:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 17.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 49.7个百分点。"]}}