{"F": {"ts_code": "688157.SH", "name": "松井股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "涂料油墨", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200609", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.33, "pe_ttm": 1260.4643, "pb": 2.7183, "dv_ttm": 0.1724, "total_mv": 362857.5409, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [50.5, 48.8, 50.1, 49.4, 48.8, 43.1], "rev_series": [4.3, 5.1, 5.0, 5.9, 7.5, 7.2], "np_series": [0.9, 1.0, 0.8, 0.8, 0.9, 0.2], "roe_series": [11.7, 8.5, 6.8, 6.4, 6.6, 1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.1, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 3.1, "gm_median": 48.8, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -0.4, "npm_median": 13.3, "roe_median": 6.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.2, "fix_assets": 8.3, "goodwill_ratio": 3.0, "pb_calc": 2.72, "capex_dep": 2.41, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 25.4, "debt_mv": 4.1, "payout": 30.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 13.1, "np_cagr3": -37.4, "rev_yoy": -4.5, "np_yoy": -140.7, "np_vol": 32.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 64.4, "fwd_pe2": 34.2, "fwd_g1": 1856.0, "fwd_g2": 88.0, "peg": 0.73, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["涂料系列产品", 29.0], ["涂料", 29.0], ["特种油墨产品", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.8, "ret_prev2_year": -27.0, "ret_ytd": -35.9, "ret_pivot": -7.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.3, "ret_60": -11.8, "ret_120": -40.2, "ret_250": -49.1, "mdd_250": -56.4, "vol_250": 48.3, "pos_52w": 51.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 65, "hard": 72, "bondness": 27}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 8 亿,占总资产 45%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 48.8%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.4 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 0.2%,股息率 0.2%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 100%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 45%)和定价权(毛利率 48.8% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 3.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 48.8%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%,资本开支/折旧 2.41 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 1260.5 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -49%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -12% / -40%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "松井股份:PE 比行业中位高 1224.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 26.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.7个百分点。"]}}