{"F": {"ts_code": "688156.SH", "name": "路德科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "饲料", "sw3": "畜禽饲料", "ind": "饲料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200922", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.02, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.8746, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 221772.6684, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [45.2, 37.4, 35.2, 36.2, 21.9, 19.9], "rev_series": [2.5, 3.8, 3.4, 3.5, 2.8, 3.8], "np_series": [0.5, 0.8, 0.3, 0.3, -0.6, -0.7], "roe_series": [9.1, 10.2, 3.4, 3.2, -6.5, -8.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.4, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -4.2, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 35.2, "gm_std": 7.6, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -10.0, "npm_median": 8.4, "roe_median": 3.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.5, "fix_assets": 9.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.87, "capex_dep": 2.08, "interest_debt": 5.5, "debt_ebitda": 7.5, "debt_ratio": 55.9, "debt_mv": 24.8, "payout": 17.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 3.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 42.9, "np_yoy": 168.3, "np_vol": 127.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 57.9, "fwd_pe2": 34.8, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 66.0, "peg": 0.88, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["白酒糟生物发酵饲料业务", 42.0], ["工业糟渣业务", 42.0], ["其他业务", 8.0], ["工程泥浆处理业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.3, "ret_prev2_year": -43.6, "ret_ytd": 37.5, "ret_pivot": 114.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.4, "ret_60": -17.8, "ret_120": -2.3, "ret_250": -5.5, "mdd_250": -45.8, "vol_250": 55.6, "pos_52w": 67.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 86, "bondness": 38}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 56%,有息负债 6 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 35.2%,稳定度 78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.2%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 2.08 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -18% / -2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饲料」19 家中位:PE 44.7 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 9.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 40%。", "路德科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 25.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.1个百分点。"]}}