{"F": {"ts_code": "688148.SH", "name": "芳源股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210806", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.07, "pe_ttm": 34.1471, "pb": 8.389, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 309675.0717, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.4, 12.0, 11.0, 2.6, -5.2, 6.2], "rev_series": [9.9, 20.7, 29.4, 21.0, 21.6, 22.8], "np_series": [0.6, 0.7, 0.0, -4.6, -4.3, -1.0], "roe_series": [6.6, 5.9, 0.3, -35.7, -53.1, -19.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.4, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 6.2, "gm_std": 6.3, "gm_stab": -0.01, "gm_chg_2022": -4.3, "npm_median": -4.5, "roe_median": -19.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.5, "fix_assets": 11.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.81, "capex_dep": 0.2, "interest_debt": 21.3, "debt_ebitda": 6.1, "debt_ratio": 84.1, "debt_mv": 68.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -8.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 62.9, "np_yoy": 130.3, "np_vol": 3569.0, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["硫酸盐", 30.0], ["前驱体", 30.0], ["碳酸锂", 29.0], ["其他主营业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 77.2, "ret_prev2_year": -35.5, "ret_ytd": -30.8, "ret_pivot": 72.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -18.2, "ret_60": -25.3, "ret_120": -27.9, "ret_250": 0.5, "mdd_250": -54.8, "vol_250": 70.2, "pos_52w": 47.0}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 7, "hard": 55, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 34%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 6.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 6.2%,稳定度 -1%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.2%,稳定度 -1%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 0.20 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.1 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 0%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 70%,现价在 52 周高点的 47%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -18% / -25% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "芳源股份:PE 比行业中位低 1.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.7个百分点。"]}}