{"F": {"ts_code": "688146.SH", "name": "中船特气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体材料", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230421", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 227.04, "pe_ttm": 233.1305, "pb": 20.0061, "dv_ttm": 0.0863, "total_mv": 12019763.2368, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.6, 40.4, 37.9, 36.8, 29.7, 28.9], "rev_series": [12.2, 17.3, 19.6, 16.2, 19.3, 22.6], "np_series": [2.4, 3.6, 3.8, 3.3, 3.0, 3.5], "roe_series": [20.0, 21.2, 18.3, 8.8, 5.6, 6.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 31.2, "np_ttm": 5.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": -3.1, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 36.8, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -3.8, "npm_median": 19.6, "roe_median": 8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.7, "fix_assets": 28.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 20.01, "capex_dep": 0.94, "interest_debt": 6.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 21.4, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 30.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 4.9, "np_cagr3": -3.4, "rev_yoy": 83.1, "np_yoy": 95.6, "np_vol": 22.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 214.2, "fwd_pe2": 160.6, "fwd_g1": 9.0, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 6.49, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 40.2, "ret_prev2_year": -14.3, "ret_ytd": 464.7, "ret_pivot": 826.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -28.2, "ret_60": -35.1, "ret_120": 397.3, "ret_250": 443.9, "mdd_250": -48.5, "vol_250": 90.6, "pos_52w": 58.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 54, "hard": 60, "bondness": 28}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 233.1 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 36.8%、固定资产占比 38%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 38%、毛利率 36.8% 两条都占,但所在行业(电子)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.8%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.94 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 233.1 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 444%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 91%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -28% / -35% / 397%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "中船特气:PE 比行业中位高 151.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 26.3个百分点。"]}}