{"F": {"ts_code": "688143.SH", "name": "长盈通", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信线缆及配套", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20221212", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 163.0, "pe_ttm": 2134.7407, "pb": 15.3746, "dv_ttm": 0.0302, "total_mv": 2099127.04, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [56.9, 61.0, 54.2, 52.4, 44.6, 47.1], "rev_series": [2.2, 2.6, 3.1, 2.2, 3.3, 4.0], "np_series": [0.5, 0.8, 0.8, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [17.6, 20.4, 9.7, 1.3, 1.5, 1.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.2, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 52.4, "gm_std": 5.7, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": 7.1, "roe_median": 1.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.7, "fix_assets": 6.0, "goodwill_ratio": 5.6, "pb_calc": 15.37, "capex_dep": 6.79, "interest_debt": 3.5, "debt_ebitda": 8.3, "debt_ratio": 31.4, "debt_mv": 1.7, "payout": 29.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 8.2, "np_cagr3": -33.3, "rev_yoy": 12.6, "np_yoy": -48.4, "np_vol": 43.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.0, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 243.8, "fwd_pe2": 150.1, "fwd_g1": 776.0, "fwd_g2": 62.0, "peg": 3.93, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["无源内连光器件产品", 16.0], ["无源内连光器件", 16.0], ["光纤环器件", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 128.8, "ret_prev2_year": -37.8, "ret_ytd": 225.0, "ret_pivot": 810.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 45.2, "ret_60": -15.4, "ret_120": 166.1, "ret_250": 205.2, "mdd_250": -66.8, "vol_250": 96.4, "pos_52w": 67.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 63, "hard": 48, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 2134.7 倍、股息率 0.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 52.4%、固定资产占比 30%、有息负债/EBITDA 8.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 52.4%),硬资产占比 30%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 52.4%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 6.79 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 2134.7 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 205%,最大回撤 -67%,年化波动 96%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 45% / -15% / 166%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "长盈通:PE 比行业中位高 2050.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 23.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.5个百分点。"]}}