{"F": {"ts_code": "688138.SH", "name": "清溢光电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体材料", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20191120", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.59, "pe_ttm": 49.5926, "pb": 3.6864, "dv_ttm": 0.5329, "total_mv": 1057413.2, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.6, 25.0, 25.2, 27.6, 29.6, 31.1], "rev_series": [4.9, 5.4, 7.6, 9.2, 11.1, 12.4], "np_series": [0.8, 0.4, 1.0, 1.3, 1.7, 1.9], "roe_series": [6.6, 3.7, 8.0, 10.0, 12.0, 8.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.7, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 4.8, "fcf_ttm": -5.0, "fcf_yield": -4.7, "ocf_yield": 4.6, "gm_median": 27.6, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -5.4, "npm_median": 14.5, "roe_median": 8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 63.2, "fix_assets": 27.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.69, "capex_dep": 6.35, "interest_debt": 8.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.1, "debt_ratio": 32.8, "debt_mv": 8.2, "payout": 28.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 17.6, "np_cagr3": 23.7, "rev_yoy": 5.1, "np_yoy": 28.2, "np_vol": 53.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 41.0, "fwd_pe2": 31.5, "fwd_g1": 21.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 1.37, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["石英掩膜版", 46.0], ["苏打掩膜版", 3.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 24.5, "ret_prev2_year": 2.0, "ret_ytd": 19.7, "ret_pivot": 107.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.8, "ret_60": -8.4, "ret_120": 18.9, "ret_250": 1.2, "mdd_250": -47.0, "vol_250": 60.3, "pos_52w": 66.7}, "S": {"duration": 71, "pricing": 49, "hard": 100, "bondness": 22}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 49.6 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%、固定资产占比 63%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 63%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.7%(经营现金流/市值 4.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 63%,资本开支/折旧 6.35 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 49.6 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -8% / 19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "清溢光电:PE 比行业中位低 31.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 51.8个百分点。"]}}