{"F": {"ts_code": "688136.SH", "name": "科兴制药", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "其他生物制品", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20201214", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.34, "pe_ttm": 19.6417, "pb": 2.2355, "dv_ttm": 1.204, "total_mv": 410837.49, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [80.0, 79.4, 75.4, 70.8, 68.7, 63.4], "rev_series": [12.2, 12.9, 13.2, 12.6, 14.1, 15.3], "np_series": [1.4, 1.0, -0.9, -1.9, 0.3, 1.6], "roe_series": [11.0, 5.2, -4.9, -11.1, 1.9, 9.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.4, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 70.8, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -4.6, "npm_median": 1.9, "roe_median": 1.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.9, "fix_assets": 10.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.24, "capex_dep": 1.27, "interest_debt": 14.6, "debt_ebitda": 17.9, "debt_ratio": 50.5, "debt_mv": 35.5, "payout": 65.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 5.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -13.3, "np_yoy": 66.7, "np_vol": 206.6, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.1, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 23.9, "fwd_pe2": 19.0, "fwd_g1": -18.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 0.92, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["药品", 49.0], ["医药产品", 49.0], ["其他", 1.0], ["产品其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 45.9, "ret_prev2_year": 8.1, "ret_ytd": -35.3, "ret_pivot": 48.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.2, "ret_60": 11.6, "ret_120": -30.4, "ret_250": -55.2, "mdd_250": -62.2, "vol_250": 53.6, "pos_52w": 45.1}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 72, "hard": 46, "bondness": 60}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 2.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 20 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 50%,有息负债 15 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 70.8%),硬资产占比 29%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 70.8%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 1.27 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.6 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -55%,最大回撤 -62%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 45%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 12% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "科兴制药:PE 比行业中位低 12.5倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.8个百分点。"]}}